Arguments about gas prices as a reflection of deteriorating relations.
Attempts by the Belarusian government to secure a lower price for gas imported from Russia have political undertones. The government is cautiously distancing itself from Moscow while signalling an openness to improved ties with the West. A long-term energy security programme adopted in December 2015 sets out steps towards diversifying fuel imports and would, if successful, undermine Russia's role as monopoly supplier.
Reduced economic reliance on Russia is likely to be accompanied by greater political frictions.
A worsening relationship could prompt Moscow to consider covertly undermining the Belarusian leadership.
The government is unlikely to institute democratic and human rights reforms.
This reluctance to change will be a constraint on closer EU ties.
