The trajectory of Russia's defence budget.
Defence expenditure will fall in real terms this year, but by a smaller percentage than reported. Spending grew rapidly in 2010-15, driven by an ambitious procurement programme. With total military spending close to 5% of GDP, Russia's defence burden remains the highest of the world's major powers. Current spending projections suggest that this will remain the case for the foreseeable future.
Higher oil prices will boost revenues, but windfalls in 2017-18 are likely to fund social-sector campaign promises rather than defence.
Russia will make substitute components for weapons systems delayed by Western sanctions and the end of defence-industry trade with Ukraine.
Military engagement in Ukraine and Syria has not resulted in a discernible reduction in spending on other defence components.
Changes to the statistical method for calculating GDP have lowered the estimated share of defence spending.
