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Significance

Israel sees rising risks from developments in Syria, especially the implementation of four ‘de-escalation zones’ agreed on May 6 by Russia, Iran and Turkey after talks in Astana. Netanyahu is concerned that these -- especially the southern zone, implemented in cooperation with the United States and Jordan -- will entrench an Iranian military presence in post-war Syria, including in areas close to the Israeli border.

Impacts

Rising Iranian spending on its ballistic missile programme will exacerbate Israeli concerns.

The eighth round of UN-mandated Syrian peace talks in Geneva this month will assume implementation of the de-escalation zones.

Shared concerns over Iran will boost Israel’s ties with some Sunni Arab governments, especially Saudi Arabia.

Turkey’s enhanced coordination with Iran will not undermine growing economic and energy ties with Israel.

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