The petro represents an attempt to alleviate Venezuela's deep economic crisis, which is also affecting military morale. Amid signs of military discontent, 19 officers have been arrested this month. At the same time, despite alleged US pressure and bitter criticism from opposition parties boycotting the May 20 presidential election, opposition candidate Henri Falcon has continued to mobilise for his presidential bid.
Protests will be launched over coming days by the abstentionist block, elevating the risk of violence and disorder.
Falcon’s continued candidacy will push abstentionist parties into a deeper and more domestically unpopular partnership with Washington.
A disaffected and demoralised security sector will be a primary target for opposition lobbying and pressure.
US petro sanctions will likely be followed by countries including Canada, the EU and some South American countries.
