Prolonged protests.
President Daniel Ortega is refusing to make concessions to protesters despite three months of protests that have left more than 350 people dead and brought Nicaragua to a standstill. With a national dialogue initiative now effectively moribund, and the president refusing to schedule fresh elections, protests and civil violence look set to escalate.
Investors and donors will suspend or cancel projects in Nicaragua, causing further economic damage.
The breach with the Catholic Church will have long-term ramifications, given its influence within Nicaraguan society.
Parapolice and paramilitary groups are likely to evolve into criminal organisations, creating a long-term security threat.
Prolonged crisis could increase migrant flows into neighbouring countries, adding to regional instability.
