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Significance
Since the major anti-government protests in January 2018, Tehran has engaged in a gradual but growing campaign of repression against civil society and economic actors, arresting activists and dual nationals on national security charges and businesspeople for corruption and currency manipulation. Increasing activism in outlying provinces has also resulted in an uptick in arrests among minority groups.
Impacts
Fears of a popular backlash and the lack of elite consensus mean a wholesale social crackdown is improbable.
All sides will talk up a tough line on corruption amid popular anger over economic conditions.
Tensions with the United States will not be resolved before elections in both countries take place.
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2019
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