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Subject

ECB succession.

Significance

Mario Draghi’s term as ECB president ends in October. The race for his succession is open and closely linked to the May European Parliament (EP) elections and the resulting appointment of a new European Commission president.

Impacts

The governing council’s collegial views will smooth out the new president’s position.

If there is further political turmoil, the new president will have to prevent a resurgence of credit fragmentation within the euro-area.

If Weidmann is appointed, markets will reprice rate expectations upwards, as he is urging policy normalisation.

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