From late October to late November 2019, beef prices in Brazil increased, on average, by 35%, with the price of fattened cattle reaching over 230 reais (approximately 55 dollars) per 15 kilograms at the peak. Much of the sharp increase was due to rising Chinese demand for Brazilian beef after an African swine fever epidemic reduced Chinese pork production by over 30%. Exchange rate depreciation, domestic consumption and supply constraints have also contributed to lift domestic prices.
Chinese efforts to reduce prices may hit beef exporters who have invested in infrastructure to meet Chinese demand.
There is no risk of a beef shortage in Brazil, but prices are likely to remain high at least temporarily.
Consumer shifts to alternative meats could also boost a range of food prices, hitting purchasing power.
