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Significance
Facing the region’s largest coronavirus outbreak, the authorities belatedly closed schools, banned all religious and social gatherings and asked people to stay indoors. However, since mid-April, they have loosened restrictions, reflecting the difficulties of the private sector as well as the government’s limited capacity to provide relief.
Impacts
The economic pressure from COVID-19 on top of sanctions may force Tehran to divert assets away from the conflict in Syria.
Finance for operations in Iraq will be prioritised as a core Iranian interest as well as an arena to combat the United States.
The central bank may be forced to print money to finance increased health spending and social security, risking extremely high inflation.
© Oxford Analytica 2020. All rights reserved. This content contains general information about geopolitical, macroeconomic and social developments or (where stated) other matters. It does not contain advice or recommendations that may be relied on. Where links to external websites are provided, this does not indicate that Oxford Analytica or Emerald agree with, endorse or have checked for accuracy the contents of said sites.
2020
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