South African post-lockdown mining.
Three weeks into its COVID-19-related lockdown, the government allowed certain mines to ramp up to 100% capacity (coal and opencast operations) and others to 50% (underground operations), making it the first non-essential industry allowed to resume full or partial operations. This particularly benefits smaller, more marginal mines, as larger ones were already in a relatively resilient financial position. However, more fundamental issues continue to weigh on the industry, such as costly and erratic power supply and ongoing policy uncertainty.
An extended lockdown and the economic impacts of the COVID-19 crisis could see a rise in community-based protests interrupting operations.
A surge in COVID-19 infections at mines and subsequent closures will cast doubt over the feasibility of the industry's short-term strategy.
The growing financial stress on workers may prompt more militant demands during scheduled coal wage negotiations later this year.
