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Significance
In recent months, Lukashenka has repeatedly argued that Moscow is working to unseat him at the August 9 polls. A trade and debt deal last month made progress on important energy issues, and with that progress appeared to ease bilateral tensions: political and economic relations are intertwined. Now the mistrust is back: as Lukashenka denounces "liars", Moscow is angrily denying the suggestion it would destabilise a neighbour.
Impacts
Ukraine will seek the extradition of some of the 33 arrested Russians, putting Minsk in an awkward position.
Lukashenka is proposing a post-election referendum on the constitution, presumably to strengthen his position.
Belarus will keep asking Russia to cut the cost of natural gas as well as oil.
Keywords:
Belarus,
Russia,
RUCIS,
CIS,
BELARUS/RUSSIA,
economy,
industry,
international relations,
politics,
election,
foreign policy,
gas,
nuclear energy,
oil,
espionage,
foreign trade,
opposition,
debt,
talks,
Fossil fuels
© Oxford Analytica 2020. All rights reserved. This content contains general information about geopolitical, macroeconomic and social developments or (where stated) other matters. It does not contain advice or recommendations that may be relied on. Where links to external websites are provided, this does not indicate that Oxford Analytica or Emerald agree with, endorse or have checked for accuracy the contents of said sites.
2020
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