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Significance
The conflict has remained frozen since 1994 partly because external actors have exercised restraint. By contrast, Turkey is now giving Azerbaijan unqualified rhetorical support and urging it on to military victory.
Impacts
Russia and the West need to cooperate on Karabakh despite other differences; US inattention will hamper this.
Armenia is the weaker side but has a committed diaspora whose support Ankara may underestimate.
Civilians in areas near the conflict nexus face imminent danger; the 1992-94 war experience suggests human rights abuses are probable.
Keywords:
Azerbaijan,
Armenia,
RUCIS,
Caucasus,
Russia,
Turkey,
Iran,
AZERBAIJAN/ARMENIA,
international relations,
politics,
defence,
foreign policy,
military,
talks,
war,
ethnic,
foreign trade,
human rights
© Oxford Analytica 2020. All rights reserved. This content contains general information about geopolitical, macroeconomic and social developments or (where stated) other matters. It does not contain advice or recommendations that may be relied on. Where links to external websites are provided, this does not indicate that Oxford Analytica or Emerald agree with, endorse or have checked for accuracy the contents of said sites.
2020
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