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Significance
Although production is not expected for another decade or so, initial signing bonuses and speculative futures are already influencing domestic political processes as foreign and domestic actors position themselves to secure advantage, influence and control over the nascent sector.
Impacts
A rushed licensing process could undermine progress on debt relief, which includes clear benchmarks on oil legislation.
Speculation will intensify confrontations with regional neighbours, especially Kenya, over transport corridors and maritime borders.
A scramble for infrastructure and logistics contracts will blur the lines between development needs, security and geostrategic interests.
Keywords:
Somalia,
AF,
economy,
industry,
politics,
social,
corruption,
debt,
election,
energy,
finance,
foreign investment,
gas,
infrastructure,
oil,
transport,
Fossil fuels
© Oxford Analytica 2020. All rights reserved. This content contains general information about geopolitical, macroeconomic and social developments or (where stated) other matters. It does not contain advice or recommendations that may be relied on. Where links to external websites are provided, this does not indicate that Oxford Analytica or Emerald agree with, endorse or have checked for accuracy the contents of said sites.
2020
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