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Significance
Crude inventories have fallen mildly in the second half of 2021, but the modest demand recovery obliges producers to practise restraint. Quota compliance is a concern for OPEC+, as is US shale output, which has fallen but could revive if prices exceed USD50 per barrel.
Impacts
If the oil demand recovery is weaker than expected, especially in the West, it would pivot OPEC+ talks to continuing current supply cuts.
A breakdown in OPEC+ cooperation is unlikely given the common interest in stable prices, but more hawkish members may have to compromise.
Vaccine trial success led investors to sell tech and buy travel stocks, but commuter and business travel patterns may change permanently.
Keywords:
International,
INT,
economy,
energy,
infrastructure,
mining,
natural resources,
oil,
talks,
Fossil fuels
© Oxford Analytica 2020. All rights reserved. This content contains general information about geopolitical, macroeconomic and social developments or (where stated) other matters. It does not contain advice or recommendations that may be relied on. Where links to external websites are provided, this does not indicate that Oxford Analytica or Emerald agree with, endorse or have checked for accuracy the contents of said sites.
2020
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