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Significance
Key to the new pattern is the increased association of state and state-linked actors with the trade in narcotics, primarily Captagon and hashish. The new environment creates risks around larger shipments, changing drug formulas and Europe becoming a destination market.
Impacts
Drug smuggling is likely to undercut and subvert the impact of US and EU sanctions.
The key state-linked actors involved in drug smuggling are likely to support Iranian proxy influence in the Levant.
The Gulf market, in particular, will see a rising health challenge from potentially dangerous Captagon substitutes.
Keywords:
Syria,
Lebanon,
ME/NAF,
Europe,
Gulf states,
SYRIA/LEBANON,
economy,
international relations,
politics,
social,
crime,
foreign trade,
government,
narcotics
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2021
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