Open figure viewer
Significance
Melenchon is rising in opinion polls and he has moved decisively ahead of the candidate of the main centre-left Socialist Party (PS), while also gaining endorsements from senior PS figures. If he can reach the second round, he will present an unexpected challenge to President Emmanuel Macron.
Impacts
Macron is the strong favourite to win the election, but social unrest triggered by soaring prices could weaken his support.
Marine Le Pen's support has proven resilient in the face of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, unlike that of Eric Zemmour.
The breaking of energy ties with Russia will encourage France and like-minded states to push nuclear power within the EU's energy strategy.
Keywords:
France,
EUR,
NATO,
Russia,
Ukraine,
economy,
industry,
international relations,
politics,
social,
election,
government,
opposition,
party,
policy,
foreign policy,
gas,
nuclear energy,
oil,
population,
war
© Oxford Analytica 2022. All rights reserved. This content contains general information about geopolitical, macroeconomic and social developments or (where stated) other matters. It does not contain advice or recommendations that may be relied on. Where links to external websites are provided, this does not indicate that Oxford Analytica or Emerald agree with, endorse or have checked for accuracy the contents of said sites.
2022
You do not currently have access to this content.
