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Significance

With public opinion shifting in favour, both countries are now seriously considering applying for formal membership of the alliance. Their decisions will have important implications for NATO. Any application processes will need careful management to minimise the risks of destabilising Russian interference.

Impacts

Finland appears determined to join NATO, with or without Sweden.

Finland’s accession into NATO would expand NATO’s border with Russia from 751 miles to 1,583 miles.

Finland and Sweden’s accession to NATO could further complicate efforts to reach a peace agreement in Ukraine.

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