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Significance
Lula and President Jair Bolsonaro continue to lead polls ahead of the October general elections. Lula has been leading for months but his advantage over Bolsonaro is narrowing, with more recent polls showing a margin of between five and nine points. Other presidential hopefuls have failed to increase their support and some have abandoned the race.
Impacts
Parties backing alternatives will either seek alliances with Lula or Bolsonaro, or try to narrow the field to a single centrist candidate.
Lula will use Geraldo Alckmin to erode Bolsonaro’s support among the business community.
Bolsonaro will seek to politicise the armed forces and police, or factions within them willing to intervene in the electoral process.
Keywords:
Brazil,
LA/C,
economy,
politics,
social,
election,
government,
judicial,
military,
opposition,
party,
police,
agriculture,
coup,
environment,
welfare
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2022
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