The race to succeed former leader Erin O’Toole, ousted in February following last year’s disappointing election performance, has already become a bitter contest between the party’s establishment and those on its right. The winner should have time to shape the Conservative message ahead of the general election expected in 2025.
Three candidates are fluent French speakers and, whoever wins, the party looks capable of threatening Liberal seats in Quebec.
A Poilievre victory may see some older Conservatives shift support to the Liberals as their party moves further to the right.
A victory for centrist Jean Charest makes a split more likely as those on the right consider moving to the People’s Party.
The Liberals may be tempted to consider another early election to prevent the next Conservative leader from becoming established.
