President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has repeated his threat of May 23 to invade Syria to "complete" a 30-kilometre-deep ‘safe zone’ and push Kurdish groups away from the border. Domestic issues are fuelling Erdogan’s rhetoric as he attempts to rebuild support by whipping up nationalist sentiment against the Kurds.
Any military action would exacerbate the already poor humanitarian situation along the border, particularly around Manbij and Tal Rifaat.
Repatriating 1 million Syrian refugees would result in a significant demographic change in an area of 2.6 million people.
The long-standing joint US-SDF action against Islamic State, which has been successful, would be undermined.
By not invading, Erdogan could gain concessions from the West, including the lifting of arms embargos.
