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Significance
Reports of shelling continue despite a relative lull. Azerbaijani attacks are inside Armenia rather than around the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict zone. This should have triggered a response from Russia and its Collective Security Treaty Organisation (CSTO) as Armenia's security guarantors, but there has been little reaction. Azerbaijan seems to be taking advantage of Russia's preoccupation with the Ukraine war.
Impacts
Azerbaijan's unrelenting aggression will not help its ally Turkey improve ties with Armenia.
A sense of betrayal will increase anti-Russian sentiment in Armenia.
Armenia is preparing for prolonged conflict with a 47% increase in defence spending next year.
Keywords:
Armenia,
Azerbaijan,
RUCIS,
Russia,
EU,
United States,
Caucasus,
ARMENIA/AZERBAIJAN,
international relations,
border conflict,
military,
talks,
war,
international law
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2022
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