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Significance
Migration pressures are increasing, with arrivals this year via the Mediterranean expected to be the highest since 2017. The EU has significantly hardened its policy towards migration by pursuing a security-based approach, but it seems to be having little impact in deterring migrants from making perilous journeys.
Impacts
The idea of processing migrants in third countries will become increasingly attractive for EU countries.
Some countries, such as Italy, could pursue deals akin to the United Kingdom’s agreement with Rwanda.
Swedish support for EU migrant reforms could see the far right withdraw support for government and thus trigger early elections.
Keywords:
Europe,
EU,
EUR,
Greece,
Italy,
Libya,
Morocco,
Spain,
Tunisia,
Turkey,
Hungary,
Poland,
Rwanda,
Sweden,
international relations,
politics,
social,
foreign policy,
government,
immigration,
reform,
security,
finance,
human rights,
population
© Oxford Analytica 2023. All rights reserved. This content contains general information about geopolitical, macroeconomic and social developments or (where stated) other matters. It does not contain advice or recommendations that may be relied on. Where links to external websites are provided, this does not indicate that Oxford Analytica or Emerald agree with, endorse or have checked for accuracy the contents of said sites.
2023
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