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Significance
As low-level cross-border exchanges of fire continue, multiple foreign embassies have withdrawn staff or dependents and advised citizens to leave Lebanon.
Impacts
The current tense climate could foster escalation through miscalculation even through the current minor cross-border exchanges.
Humanitarian conditions in Gaza will be a potential flashpoint.
Upcoming developments could force Hezbollah to choose between its Lebanese domestic and Iranian foreign policy identities.
An escalation in Lebanon would have fallout in Iraq and Syria, and increase the chances of direct Iranian or US involvement.
Keywords:
Lebanon,
Israel,
ME/NAF,
Palestinians,
Iran,
LEBANON/ISRAEL,
international relations,
politics,
military,
security,
terrorism,
war,
human rights
© Oxford Analytica 2023. All rights reserved. This content contains general information about geopolitical, macroeconomic and social developments or (where stated) other matters. It does not contain advice or recommendations that may be relied on. Where links to external websites are provided, this does not indicate that Oxford Analytica or Emerald agree with, endorse or have checked for accuracy the contents of said sites.
2023
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