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Significance
Ever since Israel began military operations in Gaza following the October 7, 2023 Hamas attacks, Hezbollah and Israel have fought a limited conflict that has displaced tens of thousands on both sides of Lebanon's southern border. Flanked by external actors seeking to keep a wider war at bay, they have stopped short of a full confrontation -- until now.
Impacts
Iran believes Hezbollah could manage a war with Israel, though that would change if the group’s leader leader Hassan Nasrallah were killed.
A war in Lebanon will accelerate migration flows to Europe.
Iran could struggle in containing militias in Iraq and Syria from retaliating against Western interests if a war erupts in Lebanon.
Keywords:
Lebanon,
ME/NAF,
Israel,
international relations,
defence,
foreign policy,
government,
military,
regional,
security,
war
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2024
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