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Significance
Facilitating US-bound irregular migration is a lucrative business that provides a source of cash with which President Daniel Ortega can shore up support for his government. It also gives him leverage in bilateral relations with the United States, which is keen to reduce the number of migrants arriving at its southern border.
Impacts
Nicaragua’s willingness to receive migrants will relieve some pressures on parts of southern Central America, such as the Darien Gap.
Security challenges linked to illicit economies will increase at the Honduras-Nicaragua border.
Washington will search for new ways to encourage Ortega to shut down the migration route as sanctions prove ineffective.
Keywords:
Nicaragua,
LA/C,
United States,
Cuba,
Haiti,
Honduras,
Panama,
Venezuela,
international relations,
politics,
social,
government,
human rights,
immigration,
policy,
regional,
sanctions,
election,
foreign trade,
security
© Oxford Analytica 2024. All rights reserved. This content contains general information about geopolitical, macroeconomic and social developments or (where stated) other matters. It does not contain advice or recommendations that may be relied on. Where links to external websites are provided, this does not indicate that Oxford Analytica or Emerald agree with, endorse or have checked for accuracy the contents of said sites.
2024
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