Transnistria as a security risk.
Transnistria, led by President Yevgeny Shevchuk, came to prominence following a military conflict with Moldova in 1992 and has been a de facto Russian dependency ever since. The small area of land along the Dniester river is currently largely peaceful. Its self-proclaimed status is unrecognised by the international community. Its position between Moldova and Ukraine, especially its proximity to Odesa, makes it a possible bridgehead for a Russia-led security operation in support of the Donetsk and Luhansk rebel 'republics' and potentially Crimea.
Moldova will be deterred from seeking NATO membership by Russia's threat to recognise Transnistria's independence.
Transnistria's closer ties to Russia will lead to a growing economic informal relationship with Eurasian Economic Union (EEU).
For Ukraine, Russia's military presence in Transnistria will remain a cause for concern and lead to stricter border control.
