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Subject

Prospects for Iran in the second quarter

Significance

If Iran and the United States are unable to agree a political framework outlining the contours of a final comprehensive agreement to end the nuclear dispute by March 24, negotiations are unlikely to continue. However, if they succeed, the rest of this quarter will be spent working out the details of a phased agreement. Domestically, the government's focus will be on cutting costs and seeking alternative revenue sources to counter the drop in oil prices.

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