Departement elections.
President Francois Hollande's administration seems poised to be dealt its fourth electoral defeat in less than three years at the department ('departement') elections, the first round of which takes place on March 22. Following the January terror attacks on satirical magazine Charlie Hebdo and a kosher grocery store, the face of 'post-Charlie France' is much less republican than what many commentators expected or even hoped: Marine Le Pen's National Front (FN) is more than ever empowered and might even reach the historical landmark of 30%. Despite this, Hollande will neither replace Prime Minister Manuel Valls nor change economic policy. Rather, he will try to re-build a presidential majority for 2017 by reshuffling the government and letting in Greens and progressive members of his own majority.
The FN will be empowered by a likely historical result, confirming its status of first party nationally and locally.
The UMP will win big in the second round on March 29, consolidating Sarkozy's return to the forefront of French politics.
Hollande will not change his prime minister but open up his government to prepare for 2017.
