The budget will prove to be all but the last political event before the final campaign and the May 7 general election. Although the detail had to be determined in cooperation with the Liberal Democrats, Osborne's package was an unashamed pitch for a Conservative term of office. The crucial contest at the election will be the government's claim to have delivered on economic recovery and deficit reduction over the past five years, versus the Labour Party's assertion that its own preferred route to budgetary stability is better balanced and more socially acceptable.
The link, if any, between the economy and politics is uncertain: the Conservatives won in 1992 (recession) but lost in 1997 (boom).
The United Kingdom has experienced a 'voteless recovery' -- a huge move from pessimism to optimism, with no benefit for the Conservatives.
Benign international economic conditions (notably the sharp fall in global oil prices) have boosted growth for 2015.
This shift could be easily reversed if oil prices were to return to 2012-14 levels.
Assumptions that the 'age of austerity' is over and the budget will achieve balance in the next parliament are very premature.
