Tunisia and Morocco depend on phosphate ore exports as one of their main sources of foreign currency and government revenue. The mined rock, which contains phosphorus, is a key ingredient in fertiliser. Morocco is the world's largest exporter and, with massive reserves, has become a global player in phosphates and (more recently) downstream fertiliser production. Before its 2011 revolution, Tunisia was the world's fifth-largest phosphate exporter. Yet phosphate production has been a long-standing source of conflict in the region, testing both governments.
Morocco's Western Sahara mining operations could come under greater international scrutiny.
Despite controversy, EU imports of Moroccan phosphates are expected to continue growing.
Protests and strikes in Tunisia's mining and refining regions of Gafsa and Gabes could become a political liability for the new government.
Chinese demand, production and export duties will shape phosphate prices.
Higher phosphate ore prices could encourage exploration and production in more expensive locations worldwide.
