Outlook for an ethnic peace deal.
On May 6, twelve of the 16 ethnic groups of the Nationwide Ceasefire Coordination Team (NCCT) concluded a summit on the draft National Ceasefire Agreement (NCA), which government and NCCT negotiators signed on March 31. For further progress on the NCA, a meeting of the full NCCT must assent; the May 1-6 summit was a preliminary to this. However, the summit saw three attending groups withdraw in protest over continued fighting with government troops in their regions, and the issuing of a wide-ranging list of conditions for the NCCT's approval of a final NCA, which exceeded the March 31 agreement.
Demonstrable progress in ending the Kokang conflict would be the fastest path to signing a final national ceasefire.
Fearing Beijing's encroachment, Naypyidaw will be more likely to consider UN help in the peace process.
Ultimately, ethnic groups' leaders may need to scale back their demands to make progress towards peace.
