Kirkuk oil.
The issue of control of Kirkuk's oil is moving to the centre of Baghdad's economic deal with the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG). KRG forces took full control of the city and some of the province's oil fields in the wake of the federal army's collapse in July 2014. In need of significant rehabilitation, the fields' current production of 320,000 barrels per day (b/d) is well below the 475,000 b/d production capacity estimated by the US Energy Information Agency (pre-2003 levels were 900,000 b/d). However, a fiscal crisis and lower oil prices mean that Kirkuk oil is now a key issue in talks on revenue-sharing between Baghdad and Irbil.
The KRG could escalate further by seizing all of Kirkuk's oilfields, which might speed up exports of Kirkuk oil.
The Kurds will control Kirkuk militarily for the foreseeable future.
Broken Baghdad-KRG relations could slow down the liberation of Mosul.
