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Subject

Slowing growth in Bolivia.

Significance

On July 15, Fitch Ratings upgraded Bolivia's debt a notch to BB from BB-, with a stable outlook. This follows Finance Minister Luis Arce's announcement last month that, despite lower export earnings, the economy would grow by 5% this year, with Bolivia leading the South American ranking for the second year in succession. However, his prediction seems over-optimistic, even though the Bolivian economy depends less on foreign investment inflows and short-term capital movements than many of its neighbours.

Impacts

A small economy, Bolivia is highly dependent on trade flows for growth.

Domestic and external demand are inter-dependent; lower revenues will curb public spending.

The size of the informal and illegal sectors distorts the picture provided by official statistics.

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