Gulnara Karimova and the SNB
In mid-July, the former first deputy head of Uzbekistan's National Security Service (SNB), General Hayot Sharifhojaev, was arrested on corruption charges. His arrest is the latest in a series of detentions and dismissals of Uzbekistani officials linked with investigations into Gulnara Karimova, the president's daughter, who has insisted that SNB chief Rustam Inoyatov is responsible for the collapse of her business empire. The SNB is one of Uzbekistan's most powerful institutions, but the arrest of key security personnel may indicate that those who oppose the agency and Inoyatov, in particular, are starting to fight back.
House arrest will not affect Karimova's already low political standing, as she has little elite or popular support.
Arrests and purges may weaken the SNB and Prosecutor's Office but may also make peaceful transition more difficult.
Russia unlikely to be involved directly in current events but will seek to influence the succession.
