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Subject

Prospects for the United States in the fourth quarter.

Significance

The fourth quarter will begin with the new fiscal year in Washington. Whether a budget passes in time -- or the federal government enters a shutdown for the second time in three years -- will be a key critical juncture. Regardless of the outcome, key policy decisions will be driven by continued instability in Syria and the time pressures raised by the end of President Barack Obama's penultimate year in office.

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