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Subject

Prospects for Africa in the fourth quarter.

Significance

External headwinds facing sub-Saharan African (SSA) economies are intensifying. Uncertainty over China's growth path adds to the existing strain from lower commodity prices. The aggregate growth average is down, as the two largest economies (Nigeria and South Africa) post disappointing outlooks. Elections are due in Ivory Coast, Guinea and Burkina Faso, where leaders wrestle with post-war or post-coup era settlements. Meanwhile, the delayed Nigerian cabinet will be an important milestone for gauging confidence in the new government.

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