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Daily Briefing| September 10 2015

Sudan could become spoiler to South Sudan peace

Oxford Analytica
Oxford Analytica
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Author & Article Information
Publisher: Oxford Analytica
Online ISSN: 2633-304X
© Oxford Analytica 2020. All rights reserved. This content contains general information about geopolitical, macroeconomic and social developments or (where stated) other matters. It does not contain advice or recommendations that may be relied on. Where links to external websites are provided, this does not indicate that Oxford Analytica or Emerald agree with, endorse or have checked for accuracy the contents of said sites.
2015
Expert Briefings (2015)
https://doi.org/10.1108/OXAN-DB203274
Subject

Khartoum's interests in South Sudan's peace deal.

Significance

Along with Uganda, Sudan is the regional state with the greatest stake in the resolution of South Sudan's conflict. Unlike Uganda, it has retained a low profile during the negotiations mediated by the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD). Now that South Sudan's President Salva Kiir has signed the peace deal and a new Juba government is, technically, being constituted, Khartoum fears that its interests in the mutual border region will not be protected.

Impacts

Restoring Juba's oil flow depends on security in Upper Nile and Unity; Khartoum will prioritise its political interests there over oil.

Khartoum may use discord among a future reconstituted Juba government to delay the 2016 renegotiation of pipeline fees.

The peace deal's local power structures may also spur calls from Machar to grant a percentage of oil income to producing states.

Keywords: Sudan, AF, South Sudan, Ethiopia, Kenya, Uganda, international relations, politics, foreign policy, government, military, rebellion, security, industry, oil
© Oxford Analytica 2020. All rights reserved. This content contains general information about geopolitical, macroeconomic and social developments or (where stated) other matters. It does not contain advice or recommendations that may be relied on. Where links to external websites are provided, this does not indicate that Oxford Analytica or Emerald agree with, endorse or have checked for accuracy the contents of said sites.
2015
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