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Subject
Russia's significant recent reinforcement of the Assad regime with the deployment of combat aircraft around Lattakia.
Significance
President Vladimir Putin appears determined to ensure that President Bashar al-Assad's regime is part of Syria's future and that Russia will retain significant influence in a post-conflict state.
Impacts
Russia has already made some diplomatic gains from its intervention, but soon the costs will become more apparent.
Russia can increase its deployments in Syria, but will strive to avoid a ground war that could lead to many Russian casualties.
Russia's relationship with Saudi Arabia and Turkey will be strained.
By weakening mainstream rebels, Moscow's actions risk indirectly strengthening Islamic State group.
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2015
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