The gold sector has so far avoided strikes (NUM concluded a wage agreement affecting two firms on October 2), unlike the wider mining sector. Government policies and support initiatives, along with leadership changes, are unlikely to improve the outlook.
The special tax commission's rejection of windfall taxes on mining will provide a moderate confidence boost.
However, strong support for such measures from ANC provincial bodies could keep them on the party's agenda.
The NUM strike raises the risk of power blackouts given the country's dependence on Eskom's finite coal reserves.
NUM rival, the Association of Mineworkers and Construction Union (AMCU), could reject the gold sector wage agreement, raising strike risks.
AMCU only has sufficient members for a protected strike at Sibanye Gold, opening the possibility of retrenchments.
