Election outlook in Uganda.
President Yoweri Museveni is confirmed as the National Resistance Movement's (NRM) official presidential candidate for February 2016 general elections. His most threatening challenger is former Prime Minister Amama Mbabazi, whose defection is the most significant in a decade. However, in the wake of the NRM party primaries and delegates conference, Museveni has shown his ability to consolidate support among the political elite.
Uganda's elections will distract focus from its official mediation role in Burundi's deteriorating security crisis.
However, Museveni may also guard Uganda's position as the regional mediator for fear of losing influence.
Burundi is at high risk of civil conflict, with repercussions for regional stability ahead of Uganda's elections.
