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Subject

Civil aerospace outlook.

Significance

The November Dubai Airshow may herald a slowdown in the global civil aerospace business as neither Airbus nor Boeing registered large airline orders. The falling cost of fuel has led many airlines to delay expensive modernisation plans. Concerns over the state of the global economy will also dampen short-term demand.

Impacts

Bottlenecks in supply chains may constrain future production expansions.

Airbus will face an expensive decision in the early 2020s about launching an all-new narrow-body to replace the A320neo.

New programmes will be affected harder by a downturn, with companies fighting for sales in the competitive regional airliner market.

The battle for market share could force at least one contender out of business over the next five years.

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