Domestic political outlook.
Two reports released at the start of 2016 chart growing military restrictions on political freedoms. The Thai Lawyers for Human Rights reported a sharp rise in the use of military courts to try civilians charged with political crimes, while the Thai Journalists Association documented several incidents of reporters and editors being detained without charge. Meanwhile, in December, the National Human Rights Commission reported a rise in human rights complaints since the 2014 coup.
Infrastructure mega-projects will proceed, but rural economic decline is the greatest risk to political stability.
Lack of consensus on a new constitution could create the conditions for extending military rule to 2018.
Mishandling of Yingluck's trial could reunite the PTP and its red-shirt base.
