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Significance

The National Assembly that convened January 5 has assumed a combative posture towards the government of President Nicolas Maduro which has, in turn, demonstrated an early resolve to bypass the legislature. Supporters of dialogue and negotiated reform on both sides have been marginalised, with confrontational actors promoted to dominant positions in the assembly and cabinet.

Impacts

The opposition will seek to advance its legislative priorities quickly, notably the release of political prisoners including Leopoldo Lopez.

Assembly efforts to unpick and roll back the Bolivarian Revolution will prompt increasingly defensive and incoherent government responses.

Intractable deadlock, wild rumour and instability are inevitable over the weeks and months ahead.

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