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Subject

Possible successors to President Rafael Correa.

Significance

The surprising news that President Rafael Correa will not stand in the 2017 presidential elections has triggered a debate over who the ruling party, Alianza Pais, will select as its candidate. The task confronting the party is to choose a candidate who has the potential to secure low and middle-income votes on the one hand and appeal to national and international investors on the other. Striking this balance will be particularly important as the collapse of world oil prices and slowdown of economic growth has damaged the government and fuelled social and political tensions.

Impacts

Whoever Alianza Pais selects is likely to be the strong favourite, despite the government's difficulties in recent months.

The key election battle is likely to be over control of the legislature rather than the presidency.

The primary challenge for the opposition to the right will be to find a candidate capable of uniting various leaders and factions.

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