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Subject

China's economic growth prospects.

Significance

After the 2008 global financial crisis, China's resilience thanks to Beijing's large and rapid stimulus package was credited with making China the engine of growth for the world economy. Today, China is seen as the opposite, with diverse economic ills across the world routinely blamed on China's slowdown.

Impacts

Investment in heavy industry will not rebound, but there is still ample scope for investment in construction related to urbanisation.

Consumption will make the largest contribution to economic growth.

The rate of capital accumulation will remain high for some years, boosting labour productivity further.

With wages still rising, inflation in China will pick up once commodity prices stop falling.

Inflation in China will feed into inflation in the West, while a more affluent China demands more goods and services.

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