Political economy outlook for Rwanda.
In December 2015's constitutional referendum, the vast majority (98.3%) of Rwandan voters voted in favour of allowing President Paul Kagame to run for three more terms in office, potentially keeping him in power until 2034. Ahead of presidential elections next year, the response from major donors has been muted, despite evidence of repression of opposition activists and the media.
Evidence of arms being smuggled through Rwanda into Burundi to aid rebels there will increase bilateral tensions with Bujumbura.
Kagame may face domestic political pressure to intervene in Burundi from Rwanda's Tutsi elite, risking an escalation of the crisis.
However, violence is unlikely to spill over into Rwanda itself given Kigali's extensive precaution measures, eg heavy border security.
Claims that Hutu-extremist rebels may attack Rwanda could provide justification for intervention in eastern Congo-Kinshasa (DRC).
