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Significance
As Bulgarian-Turkish relations have hit a low point in any case, the Bulgarian government can adopt a tough line without fear of alienating Turkey. In contrast to Bulgaria, Greece has seized on the EU deal as a chance to improve ties with Turkey. It may be Cyprus that turns out to be the spoiler.
Impacts
Frustrated in the Middle East, Turkey's zero-problems-with-neighbours policy is faltering in South-eastern Europe too.
The EU deal will boost Greek-Turkish cooperation, which might spill over from migration to other areas.
Bulgaria will step up efforts to join Schengen but the prospect of accession is far removed.
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2016
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