NATO's evolving response to growing Russian military power.
NATO-Russia relations have worsened since Moscow's annexation of Crimea in 2014 and subsequent actions in eastern Ukraine. Western policymakers failed to forecast Russian President Vladimir Putin's use of force in Ukraine and later Syria. To reassure its eastern members and deter possible Russian aggression, NATO has created a rapid-response military capacity and is considering an increase in conventional force deployment. Russian policymakers express concern about continued NATO expansion. At the heart of the confrontation is Ukraine: Moscow regards the country as part of its sphere of influence and even if bilateral relations seem irreparably damaged, it can at least block Ukrainian integration into European security and economic structures.
Russian willingness to use military action will not be reduced even if budget cuts constrain arms acquisitions.
NATO will steer clear of 'out-of-area' deployments such as Afghanistan as eastern Europe becomes the priority.
Individual NATO members will have to review years of cuts in defence spending including arms purchases.
