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Subject

Security challenges and responses in the Baltic states.

Significance

Since Moscow's annexation of Crimea and support for rebels in eastern Ukraine in 2014, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania have increasingly been viewed as potential targets. Their vulnerabilities include their small size, territorial proximity to the Russian landmass and significant Slav minorities in Latvia and Estonia. Russian intervention is most likely to involve covert rather than overt aggression. NATO has increased its capabilities in the three member states.

Impacts

The NATO summit in Warsaw in July will discuss further steps to reassure members and deter Russia

Lithuania will cooperate with Poland, which has much larger forces than all the Baltic states combined.

Georgia and Moldova will be encouraged to seek closer ties with NATO if the alliance demonstrates a resolve to defend its members.

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