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Subject

Shadow governance in Colombia.

Significance

On March 30, the Colombian government and the National Liberation Army (ELN) signed a framework agreement in Caracas formally to launch peace talks. Meanwhile, negotiations between the government and the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) are in their final stages. The coordination of negotiations with Colombia's two leftist guerrilla groups is crucial in ensuring the security and stability of their territorial strongholds after they make peace.

Impacts

Necessary peacebuilding cooperation with guerrillas will leave the government open to attacks from the opposition and peace process critics.

The success of foreign aid workers will depend on their building local democratic capacities rather than assisting the government.

State efforts to tackle BACRIM encroachment by force could destroy any hard-won legitimacy with local populations.

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